A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
